This is the sixth part of a series of articles related to the 2014 elections. The links to the first five articles are below this article.
Today, Nov. 4, could be an important date in American history. It also could be an insignificant date in American history.
Today, there are elections in all 435 of the congressional districts in the USA, 36 Senate elections in 34 states (both seats are up for grabs in Oklahoma and South Carolina because of midterm retirements), and 36 gubernatorial elections.
I personally believe that the elections for the House and Senate are relatively unimportant because nothing will be achieved in 2015 and 2016 regardless of who wins. Currently, the Republican Party has a 233-199 edge in the House with three vacancies and the Democrats have a 55-45 edge in the Senate.
I also personally believe that the gubernatorial elections are very important because Republicans at the state level are obsessed with passing laws that are de-facto poll taxes to prevent millions of Americans from voting so they can fix future elections. Currently, there are 29 Republican and 21 Democratic governors.
In any case, here is the state of the key races in the 2014 Elections, according to a compilation of polls as computed by Real Clear Politics. The numbers are as of noon EST on Nov. 4.
GUBERNATORIAL RACES: Note: Republicans kicked a__ in 2010 so they are the incumbents in all of these races. Florida: Charlie Crist, who was the Republican governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 and is the Democratic Party nominee in 2014, leads current GOP governor Rick Scott by 0.4 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average. Kansas: Sam Brownback, who as governor launched a reverse Robin Hood operation to funnel money to his rich friends, trails Democratic Party nominee Paul Davis by 2.0 percent, reports RCP. Michigan: Ex-Gateway, Inc. computer executive Rick Snyder leads ex-Democratic congressman Mark Schauer by 2.0 percent in his bid for a second term, reports RCP. Ohio: Former presidential candidate John Kasich was very unpopular a couple of years ago, but now leads Democrat Ed FitzGerald by 20.7 percent. This one is over. Pennsylvania: Democrat Tom Wolf, a longtime business executive who has also been the state’s Secretary of Revenue, is heavily favored to make Tom Corbett a one-term governor. Wolf is up by 11.0 percent. Wisconsin: Scott Walker survived a recall. He also wants to be the first president who didn’t graduate college since Harry Truman, but first he must beat Mary Burke, the Secretary of Commerce in a Democratic administration. Walker leads by 2.2 percent.
SENATE RACES FOR SEATS HELD BY DEMS: Note: Republicans are heavily favored to win seats held by retiring Democrats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Thus, they need to win three more seats to take control of the Senate. They’re favored to do so as the below race-by-race analysis makes clear. Alaska: One of many children of fathers who are very famous in their home state, first-term senator Mark Begich is struggling to get re-elected. He trails state attorney general Mark Sullivan by 2.4 percent. Arkansas: The son of an ex-senator, Mark Pryor, a senator himself for the past 12 years, is in deep political trouble. He trails Congressman Tom Cotton by 7.0 percent. Colorado: Mark Udall, the son of Morris, seemed safe a year ago in what seemed to be an increasingly Blue state. On Election Day, though, he trails Congressman Cory Gardner by 2.5 percent. Iowa: A year ago, Congressman Bruce Braley seemed likely to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin, but a perceived anti-farmer remark and a personality-based campaign by an unknown state lawmaker who brags about castrating pigs, her military service, and her affinity for guns has him in political trouble. Joni Ernst leads by 2.3 percent in her bid to become the state’s first woman to win statewide office. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu won close Senate elections in 1996, 2002 and 2008, but her luck might be out. She might win the most votes today in an election against two conservatives, but lose a December 6 runoff to Congressman Bill Cassidy. She trails by 4.8 percent in a one-on-one race. Minnesota: Al Franken is expected to win easily in his re-election bid. That’s just funny. New Hampshire: If first-term senator Jeanne Shaheen loses, the Democrats are in trouble nationwide. She has high popularity ratings, but leads ex-Massachusetts senator Scott Brown by less than 1 percent. North Carolina: First-term incumbent Kay Hagan was considered the most vulnerable Democrat a year ago, but the GOP ruled state legislature is so unpopular that she leads state House Speaker Thom Tillis by 0.7 percent.
SENATE RACES FOR SEATS HELD BY GOP: Georgia: Saxby Chambliss, who got elected in 2002 by running the most vile political campaign in U.S. history, is retiring. Good riddance. Chambliss smeared incumbent Max Cleland as an unpatriotic coward although Cleland had both legs and one arm blown off while fighting for the USA in Vietnam and Chambliss got out of the war by claiming he had a bad knee. A Republican should win in Georgia, but Michelle Nunn, the daughter of ex-senator Sam Nunn, could beat Republican David Perdue today or in the Jan. 6 runoff. She trails by 3 percent in a one-on-one race. Kansas: Incumbent Pat Roberts barely beat a Tea Party nutbag in the GOP primary and in one of the most Republican states in the USA is struggling against independent Greg Orman. Orman leads by 0.8 percent in a race without a Democrat. Kentucky: I find it difficult to even write about Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He is very unpopular according to polls but should win anyway because Kentuckians just don’t like Democrats. He leads Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes by 7.2 percent.
HOUSE OF REPS RACES: Real Clear Politics expects Republicans to win 226 of the 233 U.S. House of Representatives’ seats they currently hold and Democrats to win 179 of the 199 seats they currently hold. Real Clear considers the other 30 seats tossups and 20 of them are for seats currently held by Democrats. “GOP poised for +6 to +10,” is how Real Clear summarizes its analysis. In other words, it expects the GOP to have an edge in the next Congress from between 239-196 to 243-192. The Cook Political Report predicts that only four seats will switch parties with Republicans winning Democratic seats in New York, North Carolina, and Utah, and a Democrat winning a Republican seat in California. Cook also reports that 16 Democratic seats and five Republican seats could go either way. The 16 Democrats in trouble are two U.S. representatives in Arizona, three in California, one in Florida, one in Georgia, two in Illinois, one in Iowa, one in Minnesota, one in New Hampshire, three in New York, and one in West Virginia. The five Republican seats in trouble are one each in Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, and West Virginia.
The first part of the Elections 2014 series was entitled “Democrats Need To Stop Relying On Their Daddies.” The second part was entitled “The Future Of The USA’s Democracy Is At Stake.” The third part was entitled “Americans Are Ignorant About History.” The fourth part was entitled “The Best And Worst Presidents In American History.” The fifth part was entitled “What’s The Matter With Kansas?”
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